MLB: Handicapping deck stacked against Boston?

MLB: Handicapping deck stacked against Boston?

2010-07-05

The Red Sox and Rays are both nipping at the heels of the A.L. East-leading Yankees, each within 2-games of the top spot. Boston currently leads the wildcard race by a half-game. It goes without saying that the teams will open a meaningful series on Monday night at 7:10 PM ET in Tampa. The Rays are -140 favorites according to Sportsbook.com but that could end up being much higher when bettors get their hands on some powerful systems and trends backing the hosts.

One of the first things I like to consider is the status of the bullpens. We all know that betting lines are predicated first and foremost on starting pitching. It is for that reason that line value can be pulled from less obvious factors. Note that despite the 5-2 record in their last seven games, the Red Sox bullpen has been awful during the stretch, with an ERA of 8.15. At the same time, the Rays are only 4-3 in their L7 games, but their relief staff has been stellar, with a 0.962 WHIP during the stretch. That difference sets up for a very strong system for tonight:

• Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (BOSTON) - with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 7.00 the last 10 games against opponent with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.200 the last 10 games. (69-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.9%, +34.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The other thing that stands out to me is the drastic differential in home/road dichotomy between these teams. In fact, there are two angles so powerful on each side of the coin that there seems to be only one way to bet tonight’s game. Take a look.

• BOSTON was 3-17 (-15.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of last season. The average score was BOSTON 3.0, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 3*)

• TAMPA BAY is 46-20 (+22.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 5.2, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 1*)

That first angle is actually quite shocking. With Boston having played its 82nd game yesterday, we are now officially into the second half of the season. Unless something changes in 2010, this angle could have a profound effect on Boston’s playoff chances. The Sox face potentially 11 different series’ the rest of the way against winning teams on the road, including two each at both Tampa and New York.

Tampa Bay is convinced the recent swoon is finally behind them. The Rays, who struggled for more than a month after racing to a 32-12 start, enters this seven-game homestand on an upswing after taking three of four from Minnesota, capped by Sunday's 7-4 victory.

Boston, which begins a six-game road swing with this contest, was denied a sweep of last-place Baltimore on Sunday with a 6-1 defeat.

Boston’s Daisuke Matsuzaka (5-3, 4.50 ERA) gets his second crack at Matt Garza (9-5, 4.08) and the Rays in five days. The right-hander has struggled with his control since coming off the disabled list due to a strained forearm, walking eight in 11 innings over two starts.

He lasted six innings versus Garza on Wednesday, giving up three runs and four hits with four walks in a 9-4 defeat. Matsuzaka is 2-5 with a 4.10 ERA in 10 starts against the Rays, but did get a victory in his most recent outing at Tampa Bay in 2008.

Garza appears to be finding his groove as he tries to become Tampa Bay's second 10-game winner along with David Price. He yielded three runs in seven-plus innings against the Red Sox for his fourth win in five starts.

The right-hander is 2-1 in three starts versus Boston this season, with the loss coming at home May 26. Garza is 7-3 with a 3.40 ERA in 15 career starts against the Red Sox.

The StatFox Power Line indicates that the Rays are slightly overpriced, indicating that they should be a favorite of only -124.

MLB News

Click here to read latest MLB news