MLB: Oakland-Chicago Offensive Fireworks?

The A’s and White Sox will begin a 4-game series tonight in Chicago and the first game of the series is highlighted by a tremendous betting system favoring the OVER

2008-07-03

The A’s and White Sox will begin a 4-game series tonight in Chicago and the first game of the series is highlighted by a tremendous betting system favoring the OVER. Apparently most Sportsbook.com bettors have yet to take notice, since 81% of early players favor the UNDER.

The Oakland A’s finished a hard fought series with division rival Los Angeles ending up on the losing end, as the Angels came from behind in two contests to take the three-game series. Oakland heads to the Midwest to face another first place club, the Chicago White Sox, four times over the holiday weekend. The White Sox are on a seven-game winning streak and have taken eight of nine overall. The last two nights it has walk-off hits for the Pale Hose to escape with W’s.

One player on the White Sox who has not made positive contributions of late is Javier Vazquez (7-6, 4.49, 1.392 WHIP). Vazquez went 2-2 with a 7.48 ERA in five June starts, and labored through 4 1/3 innings on Saturday in a 6-5 victory over the Cubs, allowing five runs, on nine hits and three free passes. Chicago is a -120 money line home favorite on the South Side at Sportsbook.com, with total Un8. Vazquez and the White Sox are 10-1 OVER as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.

Manager Ozzie Guillen’s club will face one of the best stories, this side of the Rangers Josh Hamilton. Oakland’s Justin Duchscherer (8-5, 1.91, 0.918 WHIP) is the major league’s ERA leader, having conceded two earned runs or fewer in 12 of his 13 starts, holding opposing batters to a league-low .197 average. Duchscherer had hip surgery last season and finally has gotten a chance to start on regular basis. His biggest asset is command, with 55 K’s and only 19 walks in 85 innings of work, having above average stuff. He been especially tough of late, allowing 13 hits and three runs in 23 2/3 innings, which works out to mind-blowing WHIP of 0.676.

Where does this information lead into tonight’s opener, to a scintillating Super Situation from the FoxSheets.

PLAY OVER on home teams like Chicago, with a cold starting pitcher like Javier Vazquez, with ERA of 7.50 or higher over his last three starts, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher like Justin Duchscherer, with a WHIP of 0.800 or less over his last three starts.

Since the beginning of the 2004 campaign, this system is 34-9, 79.1 percent. Some might wonder how the White Sox will penetrate Duchscherer, who has been so strong. Chicago is 30-11 at U.S. Cellular Field, averaging 5.9 runs per game. The Sox have been extremely patient at the dish, particularly at home and will try to drive the A’s 30-year old starter’s pitch count up. Even if they don’t have a great deal of success scoring early, they will want to attack Oakland relievers, who have yielded 10 earned runs over their last 10 1/3 innings.

The Athletics should have no problems putting up runs on the scoreboard against former teammate Vazquez, whose breaking pitches have come up like cement-mixer tosses, just spinning, begging to be walloped.

With the White Sox and Vazquez 7-0 OVER at “the Cell” and the A’s 3-1-1 OVER in Duchscherer last five starts, the average score of 11.4 RPG for this system starts to make more sense.