MLB Series Betting- Minnesota at Detroit

For most of the season, the Minnesota Twins have been a floundering baseball club, not being good enough to run neck and neck with Detroit in the AL Central, nor bad enough to hang out with Cleveland and Kansas City. This weekend in the Motor City, they w

2009-08-07

For most of the season, the Minnesota Twins have been a floundering baseball club, not being good enough to run neck and neck with Detroit in the AL Central, nor bad enough to hang out with Cleveland and Kansas City. This weekend in the Motor City, they will have chance to change people’s perception of them, including their own. The Tigers are a -170 betting line favorite at Sportsbook.com. Here’s a look at each game and predictions for the pivotal set.

The Twins (53-55, -7.8 units) have lost five of six and are undernourished 22-32 on the road, scoring 4.3 runs per game. Minnesota is in third place, 4 ½ games behind Detroit and knows the significance of turning season around quickly. “They’re all important when you’re chasing,” Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire said. “It’s in our division and on the road. You don’t want to get too far behind or too far under .500.”

Detroit (57-50, +2.2 units) on the other hand has been a punishing home team. The Tigers are 34-17 at Comerica Park, which ties them for the fourth best home record with Tampa Bay and they are very profitable +12.4 units. Besides wanting to create distance between Central Division rivals, Detroit wants to get Armando Galarraga (5-10, 5.22 ERA) pointed in opposite direction. Galarraga has lost his last three decisions (Tigers have fallen five straight when Galarraga starts), having last won on June 30 against Oakland. "No pitcher in the history of the game can hide from the fact that you've got to throw strikes," manager Jim Leyland said in reference to his right-hander. "Every pitching coach talks about the same thing: Strike one. There's nothing new about that, but there's also a lot of truth to that.” Detroit is a -110 home favorite at Sportsbook.com with total of 9.5, with Galarraga and teammates 2-12 in night games.

Minnesota will counter with Anthony Swarzak (3-4, 4.25), who was among the pitchers torn up by the Los Angeles Angels last weekend. Swarzak is a rookie and though his numbers are not overly impressive, he’s 2-0, with 2.22 ERA pitching on the road in four starts (Twins 3-1). With Minnesota off a tough 2-1 loss yesterday at Cleveland, they are 8-0 after losing by a single run versus a division rival over the last two seasons.

Game 1 Edge: Minnesota

Saturday’s contest will have the Tigers as large chalk favorites and they come into this series 28-12 as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. The main reason for being tagged with big number is because Jason Verlander (12-5, 3.29) is Detroit’s starting pitcher. Twins hitters don’t figure to have an easy time with hard throwing right-hander. Those swinging from the right side of the plate are batting only .223 against Verlander and he has 1.66 ERA this season in home games. Overall, Verlander and Detroit are 22-4 at Comerica against teams with losing records.

With Minny starting this series with 28-10 record after having lost five or six of their last seven games over the last two years, they will need Glen Perkins (6-7, 5.95) to do a 180-degree turn, after being shelled for season highs in runs (9) and hits (12) by the Halos. Perkins usually does a descent job once thru the batting order, but because he lacks an “out’ pitch, hitters are very comfortable the second or third time around. The only bright news is Perkins and the Twins are 10-4 when he hurls in Game 2’s. Totals players should be aware 10 of those 14 starts have gone OVER.

Game 2 Edge: Detroit

The scheduled Sunday afternoon pitchers are Scott Baker (9-7, 4.59) for Minnesota and Jarrod Washburn (8-7, 2.93) for Detroit. Baker was horrible to start 2009, but has emerged as Gardenhire’s ace since June. Baker is 7-1 since June 4, allowing three or less runs in 10 of his last dozen starts. Watch the money line on him since Baker and the Twinkies are 1-6 as underdogs.

Washburn was brought in to solidify Tigers staff and he suffered rocky first game wearing the “D” for a lid, giving up six runs in just over five innings against Baltimore in taking the loss. From pitching effectiveness perspective, he’s on pace to have career low ERA and could have his most wins since 2002 World Series season with the Angels (18). Left-handed batters are hitting only .184 against him, which could neutralize the M&M boys from Minnesota. Washburn is 4-2 in day games (team’s record) with 2.29 ERA and he’s on the right team with the Tigers 24-14 playing without lights.

Game 3 Edge: Detroit

Because our guest selectors have been performing so well with 4-0 record, we’ll bring in another, professional gambler named Sal to make the pick.

“It’s tempting to pick the Twins because they have won six of eight against Detroit and have winning record (11-9) at Comerica the last three years. Verlander will dominate Game 2 for Detroit. Game 1 is likely an Over with two pitchers that will be lucky to see the sixth (inning). I’ll give the Twins the nod in the opener. This brings it down to Sunday. As much as I like Baker right now, the Tigers play so well at home and the Twins stink as visitors. Washburn settles down with new club and Detroit wins the series.”

Sportsbook.com series odds: Minnesota +135, Detroit -170

StatFox Edge Pick: Detroit

2009 Record – 6-9

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