MLB: Top MLB Holiday Weekend Power Trends 7/2-7/4

MLB: Top MLB Holiday Weekend Power Trends 7/2-7/4

2010-07-02

The 4th of July holiday weekend is upon us and so is another full schedule of baseball action as we cruise towards the all-star break in just a week-and-a-half. Many experts believe this is a key point in the baseball season, as teams hope to set the tone for the unofficial second half of the season by making a push before the break. Some teams like the Reds, Brewers, White Sox, and Rangers are surging now, while others like the Jays and Giants are skidding. This weekend’s action will continue the pre-break patterns. Let’s take a look at what’s on tap for this weekend and reveal our list of Top StatFox Power Trends that you’ll want to consider in your weekend wagering.
The interesting thing about the National League slate for this weekend is that only two teams with winning records are paired up, meaning the chasers have a chance to gain key ground but they need to play well. In Chicago, the Cubs may be reaching a point of desperation, and nothing shy of taking the final three games of a 4-game set with the Central-leading Reds will suffice. Cincinnati already won the series opener on Thursday in extra innings, putting the Cubs 10-1/2 games out. In that same division, the Brewers have a chance to make up some ground too, but unlike the Cubs, they got off to a good start in their own 4-game set with the Cardinals by winning 4-1 on Thursday. Milwaukee is playing some of its best baseball of the year, 8-3 in its L11 games, outscoring opponents 55-37 in that span. The Brewers have actually played very well in St. Louis too, going 15-7 over the last three seasons.
In the N.L. East, division leading Atlanta is at home against the Marlins. That is certainly good news for the Braves, who own the league’s best home mark at 28-9. They are currently two games up on New York who is in Washington this weekend and four games ahead of Philadelphia, who visits Pittsburgh. Both the Mets and Phillies got off to slow starts in their 4-game sets, losing the series openers. Out West, reeling San Francisco will be in Colorado hoping to snap a skid of 1-8 in its L9 games. Both teams are looking up at San Diego (home vs. Houston this weekend) and Los Angeles (at Arizona) in the standings.
In the American League, there are two key series’ to keep an eye on, both matching teams right in the thick of the playoff hunt. In Texas, the surging Sox come to town, although since winning 15 of 16 games entering Monday’s play, they have since lost three of four. The Rangers have also played very well of late, going 21-7 since the beginning of June to take over the West Division. In Minnesota, two teams that are struggling to recapture some earlier season magic are going head-to-head, as the Twins host the Rays. Tampa Bay won the series opener on Thursday night but is just 7-12 since June 10th, having slipped into third place in the East. The Twins have won just three of their last 10 games and have allowed both the Tigers and White Sox to creep to within a couple games of the Central lead.
The other current division leader in the Junior Circuit is New York, and the Yankees will host the sliding Jays this weekend. Toronto has lost nine of its L11 games and could be close to becoming a “seller” by the July 31 trade deadline. The Yankees have struggled with their pitching a bit of late, having allowed 5.6 runs per game in their L9. Boston is just 1-1/2 games back of New York right now and has what figures to be the easiest series on paper this weekend, hosting the Orioles, owners of the league’s worst record at 24-54. Baltimore has only won eight of 37 games on the road this season.
Now, let’s get to those Top StatFox Power Trends we promised earlier….
CINCINNATI at CHICAGO CUBS

CHICAGO CUBS are 15-31 (-15.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.4, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 1*)
PHILADELPHIA at PITTSBURGH

PITTSBURGH is 21-55 (-31.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PITTSBURGH 2.9, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 3*)
NY METS at WASHINGTON

WASHINGTON is 45-25 UNDER (+16.6 Units) vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The average score was WASHINGTON 4.0, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 2*)
FLORIDA at ATLANTA

FLORIDA is 38-22 (+18.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 4.9, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)
SAN FRANCISCO at COLORADO

SAN FRANCISCO is 9-16 (-10.4 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 3.0, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 1*)
MILWAUKEE at ST LOUIS

ST LOUIS is 47-25 UNDER (+18.7 Units) vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ST LOUIS 4.4, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)
LA DODGERS at ARIZONA

LA DODGERS are 22-11 OVER (+10.8 Units) vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA DODGERS 5.7, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)
HOUSTON at SAN DIEGO

HOUSTON is 9-2 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better over the last 3 seasons. The average score was HOUSTON 5.5, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 3*)
TORONTO at NY YANKEES

TORONTO is 35-23 OVER (+11.0 Units) as an underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TORONTO 4.7, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 0*)
SEATTLE at DETROIT

SEATTLE is 11-20 (-10.9 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was SEATTLE 3.7, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)
OAKLAND at CLEVELAND

CLEVELAND is 16-32 (-17.9 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 4.1, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)
BALTIMORE at BOSTON

BALTIMORE is 3-18 (-13.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 2.9, OPPONENT 6.7 - (Rating = 1*)
CHI WHITE SOX at TEXAS

TEXAS is 45-23 (+18.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The average score was TEXAS 5.6, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 2*)
TAMPA BAY at MINNESOTA

MINNESOTA is 40-18 (+17.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 5.4, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 0*)
KANSAS CITY at LA ANGELS

LA ANGELS are 65-35 (+21.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.4, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)

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