February 2012 MLB Events
Calendar of MLB Events for February 2012 brought to you by baseballbettingoddsonline.com
MLB News
AL Playoff Races
2010-08-19
Now that the All-Star game has passed and the trade deadline is approaching, all eyes in baseball are focused on the pennant races. As “the dog days of August” approach, here’s a look at what baseball fans can expect to see in the American League divisional and wild card races.
AL West: Texas has continued to separate from the rest of the pack, now holding a seven game lead over Los Angeles. Seattle has fallen 19 games back and is out of the race after a dismal offensive showing this season. For a while, it appeared to be a two-team race between Texas and Los Angeles, who has had a stranglehold on the division in recent years. However, Oakland has shown signs of life, winning 8 of their last 10 games to claw within 7 ½ games of Texas.
As of now, it appears to be the Rangers’ division to lose. Led by Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero, they have one of the best offenses in baseball. Their starting pitching has been decent but it got a huge boost with the addition of Cliff Lee, who will give them an undisputed ace with experience pitching in big games. The Angels figure to have a better shot than Oakland but they will need to start hitting and improve on their .257 team batting average. The bold acquisition of pitcher Dan Haren shows they haven’t given up. Despite this persistence, they can be expected to eventually fall short of Texas. The line at www.sportsbook.com on the Angles winning the AL West is +1500, and for a team who has won the division so many times as a baseball bettor you know they know how to win it.
AL Central: With three teams bunched within two games of the division lead, this may be the tightest division in all of baseball. The Chicago White Sox hold a very tenuous one game lead over Minnesota, with Detroit two back.
This one figures to be competitive all the way to the end as none of the three teams have a distinct advantage. The White Sox seem to be the most well rounded of any team, led by three very powerful bats and a well-balanced starting rotation. However, it’s been a few years since they’ve been in contention so there’s no telling how the inexperienced players will respond to the added pressure. Led by two of the best players in the American League, Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, Minnesota knows what that feeling is like, too, having missed the playoffs every year since 2006. The Tigers have an MVP and Triple Crown candidate in Miguel Cabrera and will be desperately trying to atone for last year’s late-season collapse; the biggest question mark for them is inexperienced starting pitching. This division is so hard to call and it may even come down to the last day but in the end, I give a slight edge to Minnesota.
AL East: Few people would argue with the opinion that this is the best division in baseball, especially with three teams who can call themselves championship contenders. Unfortunately, only a maximum of two can make it to the playoffs so either New York, Boston, or Tampa Bay will be left out. The Yankees are currently in control of the division and it would be hard to envision them missing the playoffs altogether. They currently have the best record in baseball to go along with a potent lineup, a good corps of starting pitchers, and the best closer in baseball. Tampa Bay is three games behind them and holds baseball’s second best record. The Rays starting pitching has been outstanding and if their offensive production increases just a little, they could challenge the Yankees. The real unlucky team in this division is the Red Sox, who are eight games back but would be leading the AL Central with their 55-44 record.
The Red Sox could make a run at the division but in the end, their best chance will be to win the wild card. Their line at www.sportsbook.com is +3000 to win the AL East this year, which is a very intriguing baseball bet. If they do end up as the wild card that leaves the Yankees and Rays for the division and I smell an upset here. The Rays have been one of the top two teams in baseball thus far with an offense that has largely underachieved. If players like Carlos Pena, B.J. Upton, and Jason Bartlett can get things going, the Rays will win at a greater pace than before. The Yankees just lost Andy Pettitte to the DL and it’s unclear how long he’ll be out; he has been the Yankees best pitcher and his absence could really hurt. Also, the Yankees are an older team and in the past, they’ve begun to rest players once it’s clear they’ll make the playoffs. If they clinch a playoff spot early and the past holds, they may ultimately not care if they’re the AL East champion or Wild Card winners.
Wild Card: That effectively leaves the Red Sox and Yankees for the wild card.
Although other teams are within range of the Red Sox, it’s unlikely that they’ll sustain the same pace for an entire year. The Red Sox have tremendous team power and a good group of starting pitchers but they’ve simply had too many injuries this year. Daisuke Matsuzaka and Josh Beckett were supposed to be big contributors on the mound but have missed significant time, as have Jacoby Ellsbury and former MVP Dustin Pedroia. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Red Sox make a run but the injuries have caused a deficit to the Yankees that will ultimately be too much to overcome.
Several Intriguing Tuesday Interleague Matchups
2010-06-22
Eleven new MLB Interleague series’ begin on Tuesday and several of them boast plenty of standings and betting intrigue. In fact, five of the matchups pit teams with winning records against one another. Even the one National League head-to-head matchup finds pitching aces squaring off. It figures to be a great night on the diamond, one which you’ll probably want to be tuned in to MLB Network for. Let’s take a quick look at some of what will be taking place tonight. Get more on each of the 15 games on the GAME MATCHUPS page of Sportsbook.com.
San Francisco (38-30) at Houston (26-44), 8:05 p.m. EDT
eigning NL Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum looks to beat Roy Oswalt and dominate the reeling Astros for the third time this year, and the San Francisco Giants can improve to 7-0 against Houston this year as they open a three-game set Tuesday night.
Lincecum, who is 4-0 with a 1.33 ERA in seven career starts against the Astros, will be opposed by Astros’ ace Roy Oswalt, who owns a 3.12 ERA this season and deserves better than his 5-8 record. His WHIP is a miniscule 1.083.
The Astros have totaled 12 runs versus San Francisco in the first six meetings this year. Those numbers aren't a huge surprise as Houston ranks 28th in the majors with 3.37 runs per game while the Giants are third with a 3.33 ERA.
A key trend to note, the Giants have done very well against the league’s best pitchers of late:
• SAN FRANCISCO is 14-6 (+11.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.1, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 1*)
San Francisco is a -140 road favorite with a total of 6.5 OV -115 at Sportsbook.com.
St. Louis (38-31) at Toronto (38-32), 7:07 p.m. EDT
As a sign of just how tough things are in the A.L. East Division, St. Louis and Toronto are separated by just a half-game in won-lost records but the Cardinals lead the N.L. Central by a game while the Jays trail the Yankees by five.
St. Louis starts Jaime Garcia, an impressive young left-hander, who boasts a 6-3 record and 1.59 ERA to date as the teams open a three-game series in Toronto on Tuesday night.
Garcia has only allowed two home runs in 79 1-3 innings this season, but Toronto could prove to be tougher to contain. The Blue Jays have connected in 17 of their last 18 home games and lead the majors with 106 homers overall. That leads to a very interesting StatFox Power Trend:
• TORONTO is 14-7 (+9.1 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start this season. The average score was TORONTO 4.5, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 1*)
Brett Cecil (7-3, 3.58) takes the mound for Toronto, and both starters are taking on their opponent tonight for the first time.
Toronto, who hasn't faced St. Louis since winning two of three games at home in June 2005, is 13-5 at home since May 1.
Oddsmakers are seeing this game as a tossup, as you’ll have to lay -105 with either team.
Detroit (38-30) at New York Mets (39-30), 7:10 p.m. EDT
Two teams nipping at the heels of the leaders in their respective divisions get together in New York on Tuesday when the Mets host the Tigers.
Detroit, who trails Minnesota by 1-1/2 games in the A.L. Central, sends ace Justin Verlander to the hill. Verlander (8-4, 3.54 ERA) has posted a 2.86 ERA while winning each of his three June starts after compiling a 5.02 ERA in losing his last two May outings.
Life on the road has been a problem for Detroit. The team has dropped eight of 11 as the visitor, with the starting rotation posting a 6.08 ERA. Detroit now begins a nine-game trip, which includes three-game series at New York (39-30), NL-best Atlanta and Minnesota.
The Mets have won 10 of 11 at Citi Field and are second in the NL with a 24-10 home record, while the Braves lead the majors at 24-7.
Jonothan Niese (4-2, 3.64) gets the ball for the hosts and he has won three consecutive starts with a 1.57 ERA. He has been especially tough at Citi Field, 2-0 with a 2.30 ERA over his last five home starts - all Mets victories.
The Mets, who trail the Braves by 2 1/2 games, own the N.L.’s best interleague record at 9-3.
Verlander and the Tigers are -130 favorites with a total of 7.5 OV -115.
San Diego (40-29) at Tampa Bay (42-27), 7:10 p.m. EDT
Perhaps the best matchup of all this week has the Padres visiting the Rays, as out of the top spot in the AL East for the first time in two months, Tampa Bay looks to bounce back from its first losing road trip of the season.
Doing so Tuesday night could be tough against Mat Latos and the NL West-leading Padres, who come to Tropicana Field for a three-game set.
The Rays (42-27) have lost seven of 10 after a 2-4 trip, dropping them into second place. Tampa had been in first since April 22.
The Rays will have their hands full, facing Mat Latos (7-4, 3.19 ERA), who has gone 6-1 with a 2.05 ERA in his last eight starts. Tampa bay will give the ball to rookie Wade Davis (5-7, 4.94). The right-hander has gone 0-3 with an 8.22 ERA in his last three starts despite striking out 15 and walking one.
Tampa Bay's struggles are due in part to lack of offense. Aside from a 14-9 defeat to the Marlins on June 11, the Rays scored 11 runs in the other six losses during their current 3-7 stretch. That leads to a pretty nice FoxSheets System for Tuesday’s tilt:
• Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TAMPA BAY) - cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings. (108-64 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.8%, +46.4 units. Rating = 3*)
If you want the Rays, you’ll need to be willing to lay -125 against one of the league’s hottest pitchers.
Boston (43-28) at Colorado (36-33), 8:40 p.m. EDT
The last time the Boston Red Sox and Jon Lester were in Denver, they were celebrating a championship. The way they're playing right now, another one in 2010 seems like a real possibility. The Red Sox put their season-best six-game winning streak on the line as -150 favorites vs. the Rockies as the teams open up a 3-game set.
Boston (43-28) is ½ game from the AL East lead after going 24-8 overall since May 18, tied with Atlanta for the best record in the majors in that stretch. Jon Lester (8-2, 3.13 ERA) is a big reason for Boston's surge, going 8-0 with a 2.01 ERA in his last 11 starts. He goes on Tuesday versus Colorado rookie Jhoulys Chacin (3-6, 4.00).
The Rockies (36-33) have won six of nine, and come into this series as winners of 30 of their last 37 interleague home games, including a three-game sweep of Toronto from June 11-13.
Something clearly has to give in this series with such powerful streaks on the line. For tonight’s game, perhaps this angles winds up being the difference:
• COLORADO is 10-1 (+10.2 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better over the last 3 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 5.2, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 1*)
Los Angeles Dodgers (38-31) at Los Angeles Angels (39-33), 10:05 p.m. EDT
Earlier this month, the Los Angeles Angels capped their longest trip of the season with their first road sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Angels are looking to duplicate those results, this time at Angel Stadium, as they open a season-high 12-game homestand Tuesday night.
The Angels, winners of 17 of 23 in the Freeway Series, will send the struggling Ervin Santana (6-5, 3.91 ERA) to the mound Tuesday. After winning five straight starts, the right-hander has gone 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in his last two outings.
Trying to avoid matching a season-high five-game slide, the Dodgers (38-31) will counter Santana with the red-hot Clayton Kershaw (7-3, 2.96), who has gone 6-1 with a 1.82 ERA in his last eight starts.
The Dodgers are 2-7 in their last nine games and have fallen 2-games back of San Diego in the N.L. West. They have also dropped seven straight versus the AL, part of this rare poor angle involving Joe Torre:
• TORRE is 16-26 (-13.3 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game as the manager of LA DODGERS. The average score was LA DODGERS 3.6, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*)
Still, with the pitching mismatch being given more than its fair share of credit, it is the Dodgers that are the favorite on the road, -125 according to Sportsbook.com.
MLB: Lowe vs Pettitte – Just like the old days
2009-06-26
Tonight’s pitching matchup in Atlanta pits the Yankees’ Andy Pettitte vs. the Braves’ Derek Lowe. To the baseball historian, that should conjure up memories of past Yankees-Red Sox duals gone by. If nothing else, it’s simply fun to talk about. Well, things have and always will change, as tonight’s game is an Interleague affair, with little or no added flair besides the pitchers. Atlanta started as the home dog, but is now the favorite. Follow the LIVE ODDS page for the latest price on this game.
It’s closing in on five years since the last time the New York Yankees last faced Derek Lowe and it’s one they would just as soon forget. Lowe is only 8-10 with a 6.07 ERA in 39 career appearances (15 starts) against the Yankees; however the last appearance left a distinct mark. Pitching on two days rest, Lowe gave the Boston Red Sox six solid innings of one-hit baseball, which enabled them to overcome 3-0 deficit in the deciding game of the 2004 ALCS and go on to win 10-3. Riding that momentum, Boston went on to end 86-year drought and win the World Series.
Lowe (7-5, 4.09 ERA) left that off-season as a free agent and hasn’t run into the Yankees since until tonight. After a 5-1 start with his new team, Lowe has been hit harder of late, with 1-2 record and 7.47 ERA in his last three starts. He hasn’t been able to locate his sinker as well and hitters have fattened up batting averages. The Braves are 1-4 in his last five starts.
Andy Pettitte (7-3, 4.26, 1.500) has pitched better than anticipated for the Yankees who are 10-4 in his starts in 2009. Pettitte has been a big part of New York’s past glory and like every pitcher on the Yankees staff, is trying to adapt to new Yankee Stadium which has been a hitter’s haven. Pettitte has been particularly impressive on the road with 4-1 record and among the better hurlers in baseball with 2.35 ERA in the traveling uniforms.
New York (39-32, -8.7 units) ended their three game losing streak last evening, pounding out 10 hits in 8-4 triumph over Atlanta. The Yankees will be trying to win the rubber game of the series and are 61-30 in Game 3’s. If they would happen to lose this evening, that would mean they would have to sweep the Mets this weekend to finish .500 in interleague play.
Atlanta (34-37, -9.7 units) has been stuck in neutral, going nowhere fast. Since sweeping Toronto in the latter stages of May, the Braves are 0-6-3 in series action, with Monday’s makeup game against the Cubs not counting. About the only real positive is Atlanta is 5-1 against the American League at Turner Field this year.
New York opened as favorite, but sports bettors have flipped the two teams at Sportsbook.com and Atlanta is now a -110 money line favorite with a total of Un8.5. The Braves are 6-1 as -110 to -150 favorites and are 17-6 UNDER on Thursday’s. The Yankees are miserable 1-6 after scoring five or more runs in previous game and are 16-3 UNDER on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last two seasons with Pettitte as the starter.
Game time is 7:10 Eastern and can be seen on YES or Peachtree networks, with Atlanta 4-12 (-11.4 Units) after a loss by four runs or more this season.
StatFox Power Line – Yankees -104
MLB: Yankees open up new jewel stadium
2009-04-17
Appropriately, the first official pitch at America’s most expensive stadium will be thrown by the pitcher with the richest contract, CC Sabathia. >From Sabathia’s fat deal to single-game ticket prices of $2,625, everything about the regular-season opener Thursday at the new Yankee Stadium says wealth or comfort—or both. The Yankees are a heavy favorite at Sportsbook.com, and most bettors like their chances. Get the latest info on this game on the LIVE ODDS & BETTING TRENDS pages.
Sunshine is forecast for and frail owner George Steinbrenner is expected to be on hand to personally watch New York play Cleveland in the first official game at the house he built—at a price of $1.5 billion.
The Hard Rock Cafe and new steakhouse in the right-field corner figure to be filled, along with the stadium club in left, the sports bar in the center-field batters’ eye, the Bleachers Cafe above it, the 67 suites ringing the field and the three clubs and lounges for the spectators in the first nine rows ringing the infield.
Players can drive their cars directly into the granite-and-limestone stadium, relax in the swimming pools or sauna when they arrive, then take batting practice in the spacious indoor cages off the dugout steps. Or they can e-mail from the laptops installed in each of their lockers.
“I think everyone was a bit overwhelmed by it because, you know, if you’re sitting down and you’re thinking of how you’re going to build a stadium, I don’t think there’s anything else you can really put in this thing,” Yankees captain Derek Jeter said after New York’s first exhibition game there two weeks ago.
No, this is not the House that Ruth Built across 161st Street, a structure considered lavish when it opened in 1923 but Spartan by the time in closed last September.
New York Gov. David Paterson and New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg were expected to attend the opening, the second in a four-day span for a New York ballpark. On Monday night, the Mets lost their first game at $800 million Citi Field, 6-5 to San Diego. This marks the first time since at least 1900 that two major league ballparks in the same city held their first games in the same season, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
The Yankees aren’t the only ones making a buck off the opening of the stadium.
StubHub.com has sold more than 5,000 tickets at an average price of $400— $20 higher than the average for the final game at the old Yankee Stadium last year. It’s StubHub’s ninth best-selling event by dollar volume, trailing the old Yankee Stadium finale (No. 6) and last summer’s All-Star game at Yankee Stadium (No. 4), and the resale prices have ranged from $65 to $5,883 per ticket.
That’s quite a leap from the opening of the original Yankee Stadium on April 18, 1923, when a man was arrested for trying to scalp a $1.10 grandstand ticket for $1.25.
The 52,325-seat stadium is much like the original. There are soaring cathedral windows on the exterior and the field dimensions match those at the old ballpark in 2008. But it’s Yankee Stadium on steroids, 62 percent larger than the original.
“I saw our laundry room for the first time,” manager Joe Girardi said. “It’s quite large.”
With three shops filled with pinstriped merchandise, a Yankees art gallery, a memorabilia store, a Yankees museum, a 31,000-square foot Great Hall—there’s even a farmer’s market behind home plate, a branch of the Madison Avenue butcher Lobel’s behind third base and a Tommy Bahama’s Martini Bar behind home plate— it feels like a mall as much as a ballpark.
“I’m still finding my way around here,” new Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira said. “Then maybe I can check out the Hard Rock or one of the other steakhouses.”
Sabathia, 1-1 after signing a $161 million, seven-year contract, gets the honor of the first start and left 25 tickets for family and friends. He’ll face his original big league team and be opposed by Cliff Lee.
“I guess it’s going to be weird, my first time ever pitching against them,” he said. “I’m glad it’s a day game so I won’t get blinded by the flashes.”
Lee needs to start showing some the form that made him the AL Cy Young winner last season. His 0-2 start with colossal 9.90 ERA is not what Cleveland needs off to 2-7 start. If the lefty is on, the Indians are 42-25 in road games in games played on a grass field. (Team's Record) If he’s not, New York moves to 51-19 in home games vs. a left-handed starter, including 1-0 at the new joint.
Alex Rodriguez, the sport’s most expensive player, won’t be in the game because he’s recovering from hip surgery.
“I’m very disappointed,” he said. “Taking the big picture, I want to be there at the end of the season.”
He won’t get a chance to match Babe Ruth, who famously hit a three-run homer as the Yankees beat Boston 4-1 in the first game at the old ballpark after John Philip Sousa led the Seventh Regiment Band during the opening ceremonies. In tribute, the West Point Marching Band will play Sousa’s “Washington Post March” and “Stars and Stripes Forever” before Thursday’s game. Grammy Award winner Kelly Clarkson will sing the national anthem.
Yogi Berra will throw out the ceremonial first pitch, and fellow Hall of Famers Reggie Jackson, Whitey Ford, Rickey Henderson, Rich Gossage and Dave Winfield will be among more than 40 former Yankees in attendance. The plate and pitching rubber will be the ones used in the final game at the old stadium.
New York has had three other longtime homes. Then the Highlanders, New York beat Washington in its first game at Hilltop Park on April 30, 1903, behind a Jack Chesbro seven-hitter. The Yankees lost their first home game at the Polo Grounds, 7-1 to the Philadelphia Athletics on May 30, 1912. And they won their opener at Shea Stadium, their temporary home for two seasons, 6-1 over Cleveland on April 6, 1974, behind a Mel Stottlemyre seven-hitter.
But nothing matched the original Yankee Stadium, the club’s home as they won a record 26 World Series titles. Now the Yankees hope they haven’t priced themselves out of a home-field advantage by charging so much for a stadium with so many amenities.
“I think the home-field advantage is made up of really good pitching and solid hitting and good defense,” said Cubs manager Lou Piniella, a former Yankees star. “You have that, and you’re going to replicate it very easily.”
Sportsbook.com opened New York as -190 money line home favorites and the wagering public has bombarded the Yankees, moving them to -220, with a total Ov.8.5. Cleveland squeaked by Kansas City 5-4 yesterday and is 14-27 in road games off a one run win over a division rival. The Indians are 60-32 UNDER in day games over the last three seasons. New York does lose as big favorites, decreasing their value as a play on team; nonetheless they are 39-14 as money line chalk at over -200. Sabathia goes for a second straight win and is 14-4 UNDER after a win since last season. (Team's Record)
With all the festivities scheduled, the 1:05 Eastern start may be pushed backed on YES and MLB.com, Yankee backers won’t mind as the Bronx Bombers have taken 20 of 26 as the home team against the Tribe.
MLB: Does money buy happiness in MLB?
2008-08-13
In no other professional sport is the difference between the have’s and the have not’s so magnified as it is in Major League Baseball. While revenue sharing plans have helped, in no way have they come close to evening the playing field. Still, in looking at the current standings in baseball, does it really matter? Should the bettor be concerned as to a team’s payroll? The following study reveals some interesting numbers as to how a team’s payroll relates to its success both on the field and at the betting window.
In conducting this study, I simply took a list of the current team payrolls in Major League Baseball and compared the rankings to the team won-lost marks and betting returns. To simply, I grouped the teams into three tiers, the Top 10, the Middle 10, and the Bottom 10. It should be noted that all team records are as of entering play on Tuesday.
Here’s a look at the Top 10 teams in terms of 2008 payroll.
Tier 1 Payroll Teams
Rank, Team, Payroll, W-L (%), ML Units
1. NY Yankees: $209,081,579, 63-56 (52.9%), -11.8 Units
2. Detroit: $138,685,197, 58-60 (49.2%), -12.6 Units
3. NY Mets: $138,293,378, 62-56 (52.5%), -7.7 Units
4. Boston: $133,440,037, 68-51 (57.1%), 5.6 Units
5. Chi White Sox: $121,152,667, 65-52 (55.6%), 9.6 Units
6. LA Angels: $119,216,333, 74-43 (63.2%), 23.8 Units
7. Chicago Cubs: $118,595,833, 71-47 (60.2%), 12 Units
8. LA Dodgers: $118,536,038, 59-59 (50.0%), -8.5 Units
9. Seattle: $117,993,982, 45-73 (38.1%), -29 Units
10. Atlanta: $102,424,018, 55-63 (46.6%), -16.2 Units
Total: 620-560 (52.5%), -34.8 Units
Tier 1 Team Summary: To no one’s surprise, the Yankees are far ahead of the pack in payroll at over $200M. Of course, their -11.8 units of loss for bettors this season are also 7th worst among the 30 clubs. Detroit is next highest in payroll, and 6th worst in betting return. As a whole, this collection of big market teams has combined to lose over 34 units of return for investors this season. Their 52.5% winning percentage ends up the highest of any of the three tiers, but the price tag attached certainly doesn’t justify it. Just on the surface, it seems that oddsmakers take payroll into serious consideration when building their lines. This group of clubs, other than Seattle and Atlanta, are often playing as overpriced favorites. Fading these teams consistently has produced a nice return.
Now, here are the Tier 2 teams with their respective payrolls, won-lost marks, and betting returns.
Tier 2 Payroll Teams
Rank, Team, Payroll, W-L (%), ML Units
11. St Louis: $100,624,450, 66-55 (54.5%), 12.6 Units
12. Toronto: $98,641,957, 60-59 (50.4%), -7.8 Units
13. Philadelphia: $98,269,881, 64-54 (54.2%), -2.5 Units
14. Houston: $88,930,415, 59-59 (50.0%), 6.8 Units
15. Milwaukee: $81,004,167, 68-51 (57.1%), 10.1 Units
16. Cleveland: $78,970,067, 53-64 (45.3%), -21.2 Units
17. San Francisco: $76,904,500, 50-67 (42.7%), -9.2 Units
18. Cincinnati: $74,277,695, 52-67 (43.7%), -19.7 Units
19. San Diego: $73,677,617, 46-72 (39.0%), -30 Units
20. Colorado: $68,655,500, 53-67 (44.2%), -19.8 Units
Total: 571-615 (48.1%), -80.7 Units
Tier 2 Team Summary: The Tier 2 teams are a mostly collection of the league’s most disappointing teams of 2008, Cleveland, San Diego, and Colorado most notably. Miwaukee is the biggest shining star on this list, playing 17-games over .500 with the league’s 15th biggest payroll. Overall though, this tier of teams has proven to be the most futile when it comes to producing at the betting window. Only the three teams from the N.L. Central Division, St. Louis, Houston, and Milwaukee have produced positive returns for their backers. It seems that “not going the extra mile” with these clubs’ rosters has taken its toll.
Finally, here are the Tier 3 clubs and their performance marks.
Tier 3 Payroll Teams
Rank, Team, Payroll, W-L (%), ML Units
21. Texas: $68,239,551, 61-58 (51.3%), 14.4 Units
22. Baltimore: $67,196,248, 56-61 (47.9%), 3 Units
23. Arizona: $66,202,713, 60-58 (50.8%), -9.8 Units
24. Minnesota: $62,182,767, 66-52 (55.9%), 17.8 Units
25. Kansas City: $58,245,500, 54-64 (45.8%), -0.9 Units
26. Washington: $54,961,000, 44-75 (37.0%), -18.7 Units
27. Pittsburgh: $49,365,283, 54-64 (45.8%), 1.8 Units
28. Oakland: $47,967,126, 54-63 (46.2%), -10.8 Units
29. Tampa Bay: $43,820,598, 71-46 (60.7%), 20.4 Units
30. Florida: $21,836,500, 62-57 (52.1%), 16.8 Units
Total: 582-598 (49.3%), +34 Units
Tier 3 Team Summary: With six teams producing positive returns at the betting window, and one other within -1 unit, the Tier 3 teams, or the lowest payroll group, have been the most rewarding thus far in 2008. In fact, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Florida, and Texas rank 1st through 4th on the list of MLB teams in betting return. These are clubs whose unproven players have truly come up big in ’08, and consequently, they currently find themselves in the thick of the pennant races. Again, with this group, it seems that oddsmakers have pre-adjusted their lines this season based upon the team’s payrolls. It’s refreshing however to see that not only are these clubs producing big dollars at the betting window (+34 units of return), a few of them are also potential playoff clubs currently leading their respective divisions.
I guess to answer the title question then, it seems there is only a marginal improvement in winning percentage for a larger payroll, while the majority of strong betting return comes from spotting those live underdogs with the diminutive bankrolls.
MLB: Oakland-Chicago Offensive Fireworks?
2008-07-03
The A’s and White Sox will begin a 4-game series tonight in Chicago and the first game of the series is highlighted by a tremendous betting system favoring the OVER. Apparently most Sportsbook.com bettors have yet to take notice, since 81% of early players favor the UNDER.
The Oakland A’s finished a hard fought series with division rival Los Angeles ending up on the losing end, as the Angels came from behind in two contests to take the three-game series. Oakland heads to the Midwest to face another first place club, the Chicago White Sox, four times over the holiday weekend. The White Sox are on a seven-game winning streak and have taken eight of nine overall. The last two nights it has walk-off hits for the Pale Hose to escape with W’s.
One player on the White Sox who has not made positive contributions of late is Javier Vazquez (7-6, 4.49, 1.392 WHIP). Vazquez went 2-2 with a 7.48 ERA in five June starts, and labored through 4 1/3 innings on Saturday in a 6-5 victory over the Cubs, allowing five runs, on nine hits and three free passes. Chicago is a -120 money line home favorite on the South Side at Sportsbook.com, with total Un8. Vazquez and the White Sox are 10-1 OVER as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.
Manager Ozzie Guillen’s club will face one of the best stories, this side of the Rangers Josh Hamilton. Oakland’s Justin Duchscherer (8-5, 1.91, 0.918 WHIP) is the major league’s ERA leader, having conceded two earned runs or fewer in 12 of his 13 starts, holding opposing batters to a league-low .197 average. Duchscherer had hip surgery last season and finally has gotten a chance to start on regular basis. His biggest asset is command, with 55 K’s and only 19 walks in 85 innings of work, having above average stuff. He been especially tough of late, allowing 13 hits and three runs in 23 2/3 innings, which works out to mind-blowing WHIP of 0.676.
Where does this information lead into tonight’s opener, to a scintillating Super Situation from the FoxSheets.
PLAY OVER on home teams like Chicago, with a cold starting pitcher like Javier Vazquez, with ERA of 7.50 or higher over his last three starts, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher like Justin Duchscherer, with a WHIP of 0.800 or less over his last three starts.
Since the beginning of the 2004 campaign, this system is 34-9, 79.1 percent. Some might wonder how the White Sox will penetrate Duchscherer, who has been so strong. Chicago is 30-11 at U.S. Cellular Field, averaging 5.9 runs per game. The Sox have been extremely patient at the dish, particularly at home and will try to drive the A’s 30-year old starter’s pitch count up. Even if they don’t have a great deal of success scoring early, they will want to attack Oakland relievers, who have yielded 10 earned runs over their last 10 1/3 innings.
The Athletics should have no problems putting up runs on the scoreboard against former teammate Vazquez, whose breaking pitches have come up like cement-mixer tosses, just spinning, begging to be walloped.
With the White Sox and Vazquez 7-0 OVER at “the Cell” and the A’s 3-1-1 OVER in Duchscherer last five starts, the average score of 11.4 RPG for this system starts to make more sense.